The Impact of the Urban Heat Island and Future Climate on Urban Building Energy Use in a Midwestern US Neighborhood
This study addresses the limitations of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data by integrating Urban Weather Generator (UWG) outputs with CCWorldWeatherGen projections to create climate-adjusted datasets for Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) in a low-income neighborhood of Des Moines, Iowa. Results show a modest rise in UHI intensity by 2080, but a sharp increase in cooling energy demand—91% by 2050 and 154% by 2080—alongside a decline in heating demand by 20% and 40%, respectively. While insulation helps reduce cooling loads, its effectiveness for heating wanes under future conditions. The study highlights the need for adaptive retrofits and climate-responsive policies to support energy equity and resilience in vulnerable communities.